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ZetaTalk: Sudden Death
written March 29, 2008 on the GodlikeProduction live chat.

For the 10 races ahead, 566 pledged delegates remain. Say these are divided 50/50 giving each 283 though Obama is favored for all but PA and many states are still allocating based on past primary elections or a caucus. There are only about 334 supers remaining to be allocated. Say these are divided 50/50 giving each 167. This puts Obama over the top, Clinton 100 delegates behind. Does Pelosi know what the uncommitted supers are thinking? She apparently does, saying it will be decided before Denver.
Obama 1414 P + 283 More + 213 S + 167 More = 2077
Clinton 1246 P + 283 More + 248 S + 167 More = 1944

There is rampant speculation among the pundits about the Democratic primary, whether this will run all the way to the Denver convention with the two contenders exchanging barbs so they destroy each other and the Democratic party's chances in 2008 in the process. Obama is clearly in the lead, by all counts, and as he generates enthusiasm in the young and independents, the Democratic party finds registration in the Democratic party has expanded to new members. Two to three times the usual number have shown up for the primary, boding well for the general election. Obama also leads Clinton in the polls, and beats McCain by a wider margin than Clinton in the polls. Thus, the party elders and most super delegates can see the writing on the wall. Obama would favor "down-ticket" candidates during the general election, increasing the percentage of Democrats in the House and Senate. Obama would bring independents and cross-over Republicans over, so they could not vote for McCain, where Clinton would not do this. This is the source of why McCain invariably beats Clinton in the polls, where Obama invariably beats McCain in the polls.

What is holding the super delegates back from frankly endorsing Obama then? Fear of Clinton rage, which has shown itself recently when Richardson endorsed Obama and when Pelosi dared to suggest that the will of the people should prevail. Pelosi was threatened by Clinton's principal backers, who in essence stated that their money should call the shots. Bill Clinton has played the race card repeatedly, and both Bill and Hillary have implied that McCain would be a better Commander-in-Chief than Obama. They have shown that they would conduct a scorched earth campaign, if they were not to emerge as the winner. The party elders have decided on a path that will limit the Clinton rage. Obama is not likely to win Pennsylvania but will diminish Clinton's win there. Obama will win big in North Carolina and Oregon, is likely to win in Indiana, and the rest of the states are a tossup. Thus, he will hold his delegate and popular vote lead, and will continue to rack up delegates from the caucus states as they continue to allocate delegates at the state level. The Clintons are expected to hold to their argument that Hillary wins among Democrats in the big blue states, and insist that Michigan and Florida be allowed to be seated as is from the January illicit primaries.

It is then that the boom will be lowered. The party elders, including Pelosi, Gore, and Dean are aware of which direction the supposedly undecided super delegates are leaning. Pelosi, as head of the House, listens to their hand wringing all the time, and as the chair of the upcoming Denver convention gets phone calls from super delegates not in Washingon DC. She has the counts, and has advised those worried about the Clinton wrath to hold off so they can all endorse as a block. Rumors of such a block of perhaps 50 or 80 super delegates have emerged in the past, but the numbers are much higher, the majority of those remaining to commit. When it is clear that Obama has won more states, won more pledged delegates, and won more of the popular vote, then the super delegates as a block will put him over the top. Dean has called for an essential super delegate election by asking all to publicly announce by July 1. Once Obama has more than the 2025 needed, seating Michigan and Florida are a moot point, and arguing who the nominee should be is also a moot point. With great fanfare the Democratic party can begin promoting Obama and turning their backs on the Clintons, who will be left talking to themselves, ignored. This will be sudden death for the Clinton ambitions.